Cyber War: National Security Threats

National Security Threats: Former National Security Advisers Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Snowcroft testified at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on threats to U.S. national security.

 

I APPRECIATE THE OPPORTUNITY TO PRESENT SOME OF MY VIEWS ON ISSUES THAT THE CHAIRMAN AND RANKING MEMBER HAVE LAID OUT IN THE WORLD, WHICH IS DIFFICULT FOR ALL OF US. MY OPENING COMMENT HOPE CAN CONTRIBUTE TO YOUR DELIBERATIONS OVER SOME VERY VEXING ISSUES AND CHOICES THAT WE HAVE. THE WORLD WE LIVE IN IS FULL OF PROBLEMS. SOME OF THEM SEEM TO RESULT FROM NEW OR NOVEL PORTIONS AND INFLUENCES AND I INTEND TO FOCUS ON THEM. LET ME BEGIN MY COMMENTS WITH JUST A FEW WORDS ABOUT THE COLD WAR. THE COLD WAR WAS A DANGEROUS TIME IN OUR HISTORY WHERE PROBLEMS ABOUNDED. A MISTAKE COULD HAVE RESULTED IN A NUCLEAR WAR, BUT THE COLD WAR HAD ONE ADVANTAGE. WE KNEW WHAT THE STRATEGY WAS. WE ARGUED MIGHTILY OVER TACTICS, BUT WE WERE ALWAYS ABLE TO COME BACK TO WHAT IS IT WE ARE TRYING TO DO THEM A AND THAT WAS CONTAINED THE SOVIET UNION UNTIL SUCH TIME AS IT CHANGED AND THAT HELPED ENORMOUSLY IN GETTING US THROUGH THE COLD WAR. WITH THE END OF THE COLD WAR, THAT COHESION, LARGELY DISAPPEARED. BUT SHORTLY THEREAFTER, WE WERE SUBJECTED TO GLOBALIZATION, THE BLENDING OF MANY WORLDWIDE TRENDS OF TECHNOLOGY, TRADE, OTHER KINDS OF THINGS, AND WITH IT, AN UNDERMINING OF THE WESTPHALIA STRUCTURE OF MOST OF THE WORLD’S NATION-STATE SYSTEMS. THE WEST FAILURE SYSTEM WAS CREATED AFTER THE 30 YEARS WAR AND THE DEVASTATION AND CAUSED. IT MADE THE NATION STATE THE ELEMENT OF POLITICAL SOVEREIGNTY IN THE WORLD. TOTALLY INDEPENDENT, TOTALLY ON ITS OWN, EACH ONE, ALL EQUAL TECHNICALLY. IT WAS A TOUGH SYSTEM. AND FOR MANY, MANY HAVE CLAIMED IT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WORLD WAR I AND WORLD WAR II. IT IS BASICALLY THE STRUCTURE OF OUR NATIONSTATE SYSTEM TODAY. AS MODIFIED IN THE WEST PHILLY AND SYSTEM. THE U.S. HAS SPENT MUCH OF ITS NATIONAL INTEREST FOCUS, SOFTENING THE HARSH INDEPENDENCE OF THE WEST FAILURE — WEST PHILLY AND — WESTPHALIAN SYSTEM. LIKE LAWS THAT APPLY TO EVERYBODY, LIKE READING US TOGETHER RATHER THAN HAVING THESE UNIQUE CUBICLES WHO ARE LAW UNTO THEMSELVES BUT DO NOT RELATE OUTSIDE. NOW, WE HAVE SOMETHING NEW TO CONFUSE THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM, AND IT IS CALLED GLOBALIZATION. ADNND TW ASPECTS OFO IT ARE PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT TO MANAGE IN THIS WEST FAILURE — WES TPHALIAN WORLD. GLOBALIZATION SAYS MODERN SCIENCE IS PUSHING THE WORLD TOGETHER AND THE WESTPHALIAN SYSTEM SAYS, NONSENSE, WE ARE ALL UNIQUE, SEPARATE, SOVEREIGN. TWO OF THE GLOBALIZATION EFFORTS ARE PARTICULARLY INTERESTED, — INTRUSIVE, IS THAT IS THE RIGHT WORD. ONE IS COMMUNICATIONS, AND ANOTHER IN A DIFFERENT WAY, CLIMATE CHANGE. COMMUNICATIONS IS CONNECTING THE WORLD AND CONNECTING PEOPLE TO THE WORLD LIKE NEVER BEFORE IN HISTORY. FOR MOST OF HISTORY, MOST OF THE PEOPLE OF THE WORLD DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN THE POLITICS OF THEIR SYSTEM, DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN ANYTHING EXCEPT THEIR DAILY LIVES AND THEY WERE JUST LIKE THEIR PARENTS, THEY EXPECTED THEIR CHILDREN TO BE JUST LIKE THEM, ON AND ON. FOR NOW, THEY ARE SURROUNDED BY INFORMATION. AND THEY ARE RESPONDING, THEY ARE REACTING TO IT. IT IS NOT THAT KIND OF A WORLD AT ALL. I AM NOT JUST CHATTEL FOR THE BOSTON ON THE STREET TO USE ANY WAY HE WANTS — THE BOSS DOWN THE STREET TO USE ANY WAY HE WANTS. I AM A HUMAN BEING AND I HAVE UNITY. THIS HAS BEEN SWEEPING THROUGHOUT THE WORLD AND ALTERING OUR SYSTEM IN WAYS THAT IT IS DIFFICULT FOR US TO COPE WITH. ONE OF THE WAYS, OF COURSE, IS THE IMPACT OF CYBER ON OUR SOCIETIES, WHICH COULD BE ENORMOUS, AS DEADLY AS NUCLEAR WAR, NOT DEADLY TO THE PERSON, BUT DEADLY TO THE SOCIETY. THUS THE KINDS OF THINGS THAT WE FACE NOW. IT FOCUSED MOST IMPORTANTLY ON THE MIDDLE EAST. AND I THINK ONE OF THE THINGS WE HAVE SEEN THAT, IF YOU WANT TO OBJECT LIKE IN EGYPT, FOR EXAMPLE, YOU GO OUT AND PARADE IN THE SQUARE. THAT IS A DIFFICULT THING TO DO, ORDINARILY. YOU HAVE TO FIND PEOPLE WHO WILL GO OUT WITH YOU, YOU HAVE TO AVOID THE VOICE, SO ON, AND SO FORTH. GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE IT REALLY EASY. ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS PICK UP YOUR CELL PHONE AND SAY, THERE WILL BE A RALLY TOMORROW IN TUMORS SQUARE — THE SQUARE AND GIVING GET — YOU CAN GET PEOPLE. THE SYSTEM IS TO BLOCK INFORMATION IT DID NOT WANT PEOPLE TO SEE AND THAT IS BASICALLY WHAT WE’RE FACING AND WE HAVE BARELY BEGUN TO DO WITH IT. I HAD — ADD CLIMATE CHANGE TO IT, BECAUSE IT DEMONSTRATES WHAT WE CANNOT DO, THE NATIONSTATE ALONE. NO NATIONSTATE CAN DEAL WITH CLIMATE CHANGE. WE HAVE TO COOPERATE TO MAKE IT WORK. IT IS JUST THAT WAY. THESE ARE NEW IMPACTS ON OUR SYSTEM, AND THEY MAKE GOVERNANCE MORE DIFFICULT. AND MORE SO FOR THE UNITED STATES, BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN AT THE FOREFRONT IN LIBERALIZING THE WESTPHALIAN SYSTEM IN MAKING A MORE JUST WORLD FOR ALL. TO HELP US IN THIS DIFFICULT TASK, WE SHOULD LOOK TO OUR LIVES, ESPECIALLY NATO. I THINK NATO IN MANY WAYS IS AS VALUABLE AS IT WAS DURING THE COLD WAR. IN A WORLD WHERE THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE INDIVIDUAL TO THE STATE IS FREQUENTLY UNDER ATTACK, AN ALLIANCE OF STATES TO WHOM THAT PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP TO THE STATE IS SACRED, IS VALUABLE. AND NATO HAS MANY AREAS WHERE IT CAN DEAL WITH THESE NEW FORCES ON US IN A COOPERATIVE WAY TO MY WHICH NEGATES THE INDEPENDENT SOVEREIGNTY AND ATOMIZING THE WORLD. THE IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON COMMUNICATIONS SEEMS MEDIC IN THE MIDDLE EAST — MOST DRAMATIC IN THE MIDDLE EAST WHERE THE IMPACT OF THE ARAB SPRING WAS VERY HEAVY AND STILL VERY MUCH BEING FELT. IT HAS BROUGHT CITY AND SHIA DIFFERENCES TO ACRIMONY AND EVEN COMBAT. AND THE ISOLATION IN SYRIA AND IRAQ IS AN EXAMPLE. OF THE DEVASTATION THAT DEDICATION CAN CREATE IN THE NATIONSTATE SYSTEM. IT IS ATTEMPTING TO TRANSFORM POLITICAL STATE SYSTEMS TO A CALIPHATE OR RELIGIOUS ORDER. I DO NOT THINK THE SYSTEM IS UNDER GROSS ATTACK, BUT THIS IS A NEW AND VERY DIFFERENT DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD BE DANGEROUS OR PAINFUL FOR ALL OF US. ALSO IN THE MIDDLE EAST, HOWEVER, BESIDES CHAOS, ARE SOME SITUATIONS WHERE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT REAL PROGRESS TOWARD PEACE AND STABILITY MIGHT BE MADE. ONE OF THESE AREAS IS IRAN. THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR ISSUE IS EXCRUCIATINGLY COMPLICATED. RESOLUTION, I DO NOT THINK IS OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE RESOLUTION OF THIS DIFFICULT ISSUE COULD — COULD OPEN THE WAY TO DISCUSSIONS OF OTHER ISSUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST REGION WHICH WE USED TO HAVE WITH IRAN WHEN IT WAS A VERY DIFFERENT STATE. AND IT MIGHT SERVE TO CHANGE SOME OF THE SUNNI-SHIA ISSUES IN THE REGION TO BENEFIT ALL OF US. ANOTHER ENDURING ISSUE IN THE MIDDLE EAST REGION HAS BEEN THE PALESTINIAN PEACE PROCESS. MANY WOULD SAY THAT EXPECTING PROGRESS IS GRASPING AT STRAWS BUT A DETERMINED EFFORT FROM THE TOP, INCLUDING THE U.S., MIGHT BRING SURPRISING RESULTS. JUST A WORD ABOUT THE NUCLEAR ARSENAL. AS MORE AND MORE NUCLEAR DELIVERY VEHICLES REACH REPLACEMENT CONDITION, THE DISCUSSION ABOUT NUMBERS AND TYPES REQUIRED BECOMES MORE VALUABLE AND MORE DIFFICULT. — VOLUBLE AND MORE DIFFICULT. ONE WAY TO CALCULATE NUCLEAR NEEDS COULD BE TO CREATE A BALANCE, AND I AM TALKING BETWEEN THE U.S. AND RUSSIA. THAT MEANS THAT NUCLEAR WEAPONS WOULD NEVER BE USED AND THAT IS THAT OUR NUMBERS AND CHARACTER OF THE FORCE IS SUCH THAT NO ONE CAN REASONABLY CALCULATE THAT IN A FIRST STRIKE, HE WOULD DESTROY HIS OPPONENT’S SYSTEMS AND ESCAPE UNSCATHED. IF WE LOOK AT THAT, HE GIVES US GUIDANCE AND NUMBERS AND CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WE NEED. ONE OTHER NUCLEAR COMMENT. IN ORDER TO AVOID A WORLD DEMAND FOR NUCLEAR REACTOR FUEL, CREATING OTHER IRAN-LIKE STATES, I THINK THE U.S. SHOULD CONSIDER ESTABLISHING A NUCLEAR FUEL BANK. WHERE STATES CAN CHECK OUT REACTORS, RETURN IT AFTER IT HAS BEEN USED, AND THUS AVOID WHAT COULD BE ALMOST ENDLESS MOVES TOWARD NUCLEAR POWER. MR. CHAIRMAN, I FOCUS REMARKS ON ASPECTS OF WORLD DEVELOPMENT I THOUGHT

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